Jack Doggett, food and drink analyst at Mintel, Chicago, shared in the Beverage Industry’s April issue that although regular or full-sugar CSDs dominate the market, the diet category is reducing that gap.

“The U.S. carbonated soft drink market continued to grow in 2025, reaching an estimated valuation of $55.8 billion, a 6.2% increase from 2024,” he explained. “Regular carbonated soft drinks retain a much larger share of the overall market than diet, with estimated values of $36.5 and $19.3 billion, respectively. However, diet is closing the gap, achieving double digit percentage growth in sales [year-over-year] (YoY) since 2021, including an estimated 11.8% growth in 2025.”

In terms of full-sugar offerings, Doggett highlighted the challenges that cola and fruit-flavored CSDs experienced in 2025.

“Full-calorie cola fell by 8%, while fruit flavored soda declined by 7%,” he said. . “These options are expected to remain popular, but momentum currently lies with diet and functional soda options on the back of a health push from consumers.”

Keychain’s Madoff, meanwhile, stated that full-sugar soda experienced a mixed year in 2025, but pointed out some brands that weathered the changes.

“Some traditional citrus and fruit options are declining, but certain varieties, like Mountain Dew’s tropical lime extensions, are showing strong growth,” he said in Beverage Industry’s April issue.. “From what we’re seeing, full-sugar sodas still play an important role in the market, even if they aren’t leading the category.”

Madoff added that zero-sugar CSDs have benefited from the health and wellness movement.

“Today, more people are reaching for zero-sugar or ‘better-for-you’ drinks that align with their health and wellness goals,” he said. “On the Keychain platform, we’re seeing solid growth in diet and zero-sugar colas, along with flavored sparkling drinks that feel lighter and more refreshing.

“Even within major brands, zero-sugar options, natural flavors or products with premium-feeling ingredients are outperforming their classic sugar counterparts, like Sprite Zero and 7Up Zero Sugar,” Madoff continued. “At the same time, sparkling water options like Bubly are gaining traction as consumers continue to gravitate toward simpler, cleaner choices.”

Meanwhile, Gary Hemphill, managing director of research at Beverage Marketing Corporation (BMC), Wintersville, Ohio, called attention to the performance of no-sugar CSDs. Hemphill pointed to consumer interest and the potential of natural zero-calorie sweeteners.

“Consumers prefer natural zero-calorie sweeteners that closely emulate the taste of sugar,” he said, in Beverage Industry’s April issue. “The expansion of the number of sweeteners on the market today has helped the diet segment and the overall category [and] product developers.”

Mintel’s Doggett further noted that Generation Z consumers could play a role in the growing interest in natural sweeteners.

“Sweeteners remain top of mind for U.S. consumers and continue to drive interest both away from and toward natural and diet soda,” he shared in Beverage Industry’s April issue. “Younger consumers are particularly supportive of natural sweeteners: 41% of Gen Z say they would pay a premium for naturally sweetened soda. Although this category has historically relied on artificial sweeteners and flavors, there is strong demand for brands to naturalize their formulations.”

Keychain’s Madoff, meanwhile, noted the considerable way that consumers’ relationship with sweeteners is shaping the CSD market.

“More shoppers are cutting back on traditional sugar, while zero-sugar and naturally sweetened options keep gaining traction,” he said. “As a result, alternative sweeteners like monk fruit are showing up more frequently in formulations, delivering sweetness without calories and offering a more plant-based, approachable feel for today’s consumers.”

Although zero and diet CSD options showcased growth potential, experts noted that another area of the functional beverage market has found its footing within the category.

“Today’s consumers are increasingly seeking out products that are better-for-you and offer functional benefits as well,” BMC’s Hemphill said in Beverage Industry’s April issue. “CSDs have been somewhat slow to adapt until recently. So-called modern sodas have been a bright spot in a category that has generally otherwise struggled to grow in recent years.”

Among such modern sodas, prebiotic CSDs have shown the most potential, experts noted.

Mintel’s Doggett highlighted in Beverage Industry’s April issue, that functional soft drinks found their way not only from entrepreneurs, but also large corporations entering the fold.

“Functional trends have significantly reshaped the CSD market,” he said. “The success of OLIPOP and poppi’s prebiotic sodas has positioned them as modern, indulgent and health-focused alternatives. Larger players have followed suit: Coca-Cola released Simply Pop and PepsiCo acquired poppi while launching its own prebiotic soda to capitalize on rising demand for health-oriented options.”

Keychain’s Madoff described the prebiotic soda segment as operating in a sweet spot as consumers balance function with taste.

 “The broader soda category trend shows that zero-sugar and functional options are growing faster than classic, full-sugar options,” he shared in Beverage Industry’s April issue. That means probiotic offerings have a real opportunity to stand out if they strike the right balance between taste, functionality and soda familiarity.”

However, not all analysts believe that prebiotic soft drinks will continue this growth trajectory.

“Prebiotic CSDs have already experienced substantial success, though growth may be nearing its peak,” Mintel’s Doggett said in Beverage Industry’s April issue. “Full calorie soda still dominates, and most consumers primarily reach for soda to satisfy a familiar, indulgent taste. While health trends continue to influence behavior, some consumers are simply reducing soda consumption rather than seeking better-for-you options like prebiotics. Potential remains positive, but the ceiling for prebiotic sodas is approaching.”

Although zero-calorie and functional attributes deliver on consumer wants, CSD manufacturers  also are utilizing flavor innovation in a range of forms and influences to continue to attract consumers.

“Flavor innovation continues to be a key driver of category growth,” BMC’s Hemphill shared in Beverage Industry’s April issue. “That said, it’s been challenging in many cases to sustain the growth. Often one hot new flavor is replaced by another a year later.”

Despite the cyclical nature of leading soft drinks flavors, analysts noted that beverage manufacturers are pulling from an array of influences.

“Brands are building on familiar favorites rather than completely reinventing the wheel,” Keychain’s Madoff said. “Fever-Tree, for example, often rolls out unique mixers and flavored sodas that pair premium ingredients with unexpected flavor combinations, proving soda can feel both indulgent and a little elevated. The goal is simple: spark curiosity, drive trial and keep people coming back, all while delivering on taste, quality and that occasional treat factor people are looking for.”

Mintel’s Doggett, meanwhile, pointed out that various new flavor releases can deliver high-growth opportunities and commonly are rolled out as part of a limited-time offering timeline.

“Brands are introducing a range of new and emerging flavor with high growth momentum, such as pineapple, cream, black cherry and guava,” he stated in Beverage Industry’s April issue. “Novel flavors like winter spice, Margarita, caramel, chili pepper and even cocktail-inspired profiles are gaining traction. These flavors are often positioned as limited-time or seasonal offerings to generate excitement and social media buzz.”

These innovative paths are among the many reasons why Doggett remained optimistic about the future of the soft drink market.

“The CSD market outlook remains strong, with projections estimating it will reach $70 billion by 2030,” he said. “Future growth will stem from expanding BFY offerings and continued experimentation in flavors and texture. Prebiotics will remain a major driver, supported by new hydration-focused innovations.

“Meanwhile, the rise of the ‘dirty soda’ trend will continue encouraging customization and playful flavor exploration,” Doggett concluded.

Keychain’s Madoff shared in Beverage Industry’s April issue that he expects the trends that drove 2025 innovations would likely continue.

“The future of CSDs is centered on better-for-you innovation, flavor creativity and premium experiences,” he said. “Growth will continue to come from zero-sugar, naturally sweetened and functional offerings that meet consumers’ health and wellness expectations.

“At the same time, limited-edition flavors, seasonal drops and premium ingredients will keep shoppers engaged and willing to trade up,” Madoff continued. “Brands that can combine taste, innovation and health benefits are the ones shoppers are going to reach for, making CSDs not just a nostalgic staple, but a category that evolves with modern consumer lifestyles.”

BMC’s Hemphill noted in Beverage Industry’s April issue that although soft drinks play a large role with American shoppers, growth would be harder to achieve.

“CSDs are incredibly woven into the fabric of American life,” he concluded. “They will remain a mainstay in consumers beverage repertoire. Growth will continue to be challenging as new competitive categories and brands continue to emerge.”