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2025 Beer Report: Will import beer remain unstoppable?

February 28, 2025
beer highlighted at a bar party

2025 Beer Report: Will import beer remain unstoppable?

February 28, 2025

Image courtesy of Heineken

Jessicajacobsen
Jessica Jacobsen
Beer
Mexican beers lift segment, but tariffs’ impact looms

In Sia’s song “Unstoppable,” the singer harmonizes “I’m unstoppable/I’m a Porsche with no brakes/I’m invincible/Yeah, I win every single game/I’m so powerful.” When reflecting on the past decade for imported beers, many might be quick to refer to the beer segment’s performance as unstoppable.

In Chicago-based Mintel’s November 2024 report titled “Beer – US,” the market research firm notes that this growth comes as the overall beer category has been challenged.

“Growth in the beer category is challenging, and the future seems less promising,” the report states. “However, imports are a bright spot, experiencing continued growth compared to other segments.”

Brian Sudano, CEO at S&D Insights LLC, Norwalk, Conn., notes that imported beer’s decade of growth has been led by Mexican imports.

“Imports overall are dominated by Mexican brands,” he says. “If Mexican imports continue to grow, imports will continue to grow overall. We expect this to occur.”

Christal Torres, senior manager of client insights at Chicago-based Circana, also points to imported beer’s short-term success.

Mexican beer brands, including Victoria
Mexican beer brands, including Victoria, continue to perform well in the United States and resonate with consumers, experts note. 
Image courtesy of Constellation Brands

“Imported beer finished the 2024 year strong with a 3.6%-dollar sales increase vs. 2023, but the segment has been on the rise, with a three-year [compound annual growth rate] (CAGR) of plus 7.2%,” she says citing total U.S. multi-outlets for the calendar year, ending Dec. 29, 2024.

Torres also calls attention to Mexican imported beer’s impact on that performance.

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“The success of imports can be attributed to the rising popularity of Mexican Imports, with a three-year CAGR of 7.2%,” she says. “Brands that contribute to this growth include Modelo Especial, plus $319 million at plus 7.9%-dollar sales vs. [year ago] (YA), Pacifico plus $84.1 million at plus 24% vs. YA, and Modelo Chelada, plus $50.3 million at plus 9.2% vs. YA.”

Ryan Toenies, senior director of client insights at Circana, highlights that it is the genuineness of Mexican beers that have helped the category.

“Consumers continue to resonate with the authenticity of a number of Mexican import brands,” he says. “Modelo Chelada continues to innovate with new flavors and packaging to continue to drive new growth plus 9.2% vs. YA.”  

S&D Insight’s Sudano notes that although Mexican beers have experienced success, current events could limit its future potential.

“Mexican beer continues to grow in the mid- and high-single-digits,” Sudano says. “Recently it has slowed but is expected to return to grow in this range. However, the potential impact related to deportations and the Southern California wild fires remain unknown. Overall the growth of second and third generation Mexican immigrants along with the Mexican culture crossing over to the general market provides a tailwind to Mexican imports.”

Although Mexican beers are guiding the ship for imported beer’s success, other factors have benefited the category.

“More flavorful and high-end market trend favor imports along with [flavored malt beverage] imports such as Chelada style beers,” Sudano says.

Top imported beers (Brand family)

*Includes brands not listed.
Source: Circana, Chicago. Total U.S. multi-outlets (grocery, drug, mass
merchandisers, convenience, military commissaries, and select club and dollar
retail chains) for the 52 weeks ending Jan. 26, 2025.

Sudano also points to other locales and non-alcohol as impacting the import segment.

“Irish imported beers lead by Guinness currently is experiencing growth but off a fairly small base,” he says. “Heineken 0.0 extension plays in a growing segment along with many small and targeted brands from certain countries.”

Circana’s Toenies also calls attention to the growing influence of non-alcohol on imported beer brands.

“We continue to see Import expansion into NA Beer with brands like Corona Non-Alcoholic, Heineken 0.0 and Stella Artois Liberte NA,” he says.

Meanwhile, Torres points to Canadian beers also having a positive effect on the category.

“The imported segment is also seeing steady growth in products from Canada (three-year CAGR plus 6.2%),” she says. “Clubtails RTD Cocktails, plus $28 million, plus 16.4% vs. YA, contributes to growth in products imported from Canada.”

Imports overall are dominated by Mexican brands. If Mexican imports continue to grow, imports will continue to grow overall. We expect this to occur.

— Brian Sudano, CEO and president of S&D Insights LLC

These all come as the expert remains optimistic regarding the beer segment’s future.

“Based on a steady three-year CAGR of plus 7.2%, we should continue to see growth outperformance in this segment as consumer demand remains high,” Torres says.

However, some analysts remain cautious as tariffs could affect not just imported beer, but the overall category’s future.

“The beer market will be affected by a combination of tariffs on imported beer and a reduction in consumer beer consumption,” Mintel’s report says. “The imposition of tariffs will lead to price increases in the segment, resulting in consumers drinking less beer and primarily reducing their alcohol intake.”

S&D Insight’s Sudano meanwhile notes that there is much unknown when it comes to tariffs and how they could be passed onto consumers.

“How prices are passed through to the consumer will determine the extent of a price increase,” he says. “Historically, dramatic price increases drive temporary disruption in brand trends. However, strong brands tend to recover after initial impact related to price.”

As many await what impact tariffs could have on the imported beer market, we will see whether the segment’s performance will remain unstoppable.

KEYWORDS: beer market report imported beer Mexican beer tariffs

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JessicajacobsenJessica Jacobsen

Jessica Jacobsen, editor of Beverage Industry, visits a range of beverage companies for cover stories and facility tours, represents the magazine at trade shows and industry events, and works with the Beverage Industry team to determine the content and direction of the magazine and its online components. She earned a Bachelor of Arts in Journalism from Marquette University.

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