Award-winning comedian, producer and writer Tina Fey is quoted for saying, “Acting is really about showing up that day and telling the writers what you feel like saying.” 

When it comes to the supermarket channel’s performance in the past year, experts similarly note that shoppers haven’t stopped “showing up,” but have been more intentional about their spending.

“Supermarkets have held up surprisingly well over the past year, even as the retail landscape continues to shift,” says Mitch Madoff, head of retail partnerships at Keychain, New York. “In-store activity remains strong, and many retailers are seeing steady growth, especially in everyday, go-to categories like beverages and pantry staples.

“What’s really changed is how people are shopping: instead of buying more, they’re buying smarter,” Madoff continues. “We’re seeing consumers prioritize value, whether that means better ingredients, functional benefits, or products that align more closely with their lifestyles.”

Katie Hansen, senior analyst for retail and eCommerce at Mintel, Chicago, says that the market research firm anticipates an average 3.7% yearly growth rate for the grocery market through 2030; however, she notes that supermarkets, specifically, continue to face headwinds.

Other outlets such as mass merchandisers and club stores have increased their share of the market, Hansen explains. “Mintel anticipates an estimated 3.5% growth for supermarkets in 2025, compared to 5% for other MULO channels,” she says.

Hansen adds that consumers are opting to shop these other channels as they can get their grocery needs in addition to other items such as clothing, household supplies and more.

“Prices at these other retailers remain competitive, drawing consumers in to make the most of each dollar, with discount retailers offering some of the lowest prices in grocery,” she says.

Keychain’s Madoff points to shopping trends such as consumers being more intentional, as contributing to the grocery channel’s performance.

“[Consumers] are looking for healthier options, convenience and products that better fit their lifestyles,” he says. “Supermarkets are often where many shoppers first discover new products, so this move toward healthier, more intentional choices is helping them stay strong in fast-moving, high-demand categories.” 

Chris Costagli, vice president of food thought leadership at NielsenIQ (NIQ), Chicago, echoes similar sentiments, noting that NIQ’s data highlights a major cultural reset around trust, quality and transparency.

“Quality and clean ingredients now rank above brand reputation as trust drivers, especially with millennials and Gen Z,” he explains. “These preferences are influencing supermarket performance across beverages, especially in categories where clean labels, functional benefits and natural ingredients matter.”

Moreover, Keychain’s Madoff notes that wellness remains a “huge” driver for supermarkets, with shoppers searching for drinks that support hydration, energy, gut health and their daily routines. 

“And as shopper preferences evolve, the boundaries between categories are continuing to blur with functional sodas and enhanced waters like Olipop and Propel becoming more common,” he states. “Sustainability is shaping the aisle, too. Consumers are paying closer attention to packaging, ingredient transparency and environmental impact, and retailers are responding by showcasing eco-friendly options and tightening their standards around materials and waste.”

As far as SKU proliferation within beverages impacting the channel, Madoff notes that beverages are expanding quickly, making the category more crowded and competitive. 

“Functional drinks, new formats and constant flavor innovation are all competing for limited shelf space,” he explains. “While it’s exciting for shoppers, it forces supermarkets to be far more data-driven about what stays and what goes.

“This kind of SKU growth also means faster rotation,” Madoff continues. “Retailers are testing more, cutting faster, and prioritizing the products that actually perform. For brands, the bar is now higher: they need proof of demand before they can earn real shelf space.” 

The digital aspect of things

With omnichannel shopping becoming more common, experts highlight how the grocery channel is aiming to remain competitive. 

Mintel’s Hansen points out that, even in grocery stores, multi-channel shopping is and will continue to be the norm. “Mintel data shows that 53% of consumers responsible for grocery shopping in their household are multi-channel shoppers, demonstrating how consumers are utilizing physical and digital retail to purchase their groceries,” she says.

Hansen further notes that home delivery remains the top choice (70%) to receive groceries when placing orders online (instead of in-store, pick-up or curbside). 

“Retailers are exploring how to enhance this offering with advanced technology such as drone delivery or expanded delivery windows such as delivery even after the store has closed for the night,” she says. “Other options such as delivery within 30-minutes can help grocers win smaller, more immediate-need trips while saving consumers time to focus on other tasks requiring their attention.”

Keychain’s Madoff says that grocery retailers are doubling down on what online shopping can’t replicate — immediacy, human interaction and the in-store sensory experience. Yet, he notes that at the same time, these retailers are investing heavily in digital to make shopping more convenient.

“They’re also deepening their collaboration with brands,” Madoff says. “By sharing data and insights, supermarkets can make smarter decisions around assortment, pricing and product launches.

”When it comes to mobile apps, Madoff views this digital technology as reshaping the supermarket experience as well as influencing which products get noticed.

“App-based loyalty programs are especially powerful, helping retailers tailor discounts, highlight relevant items, and better understand what drives repeat purchases,” he says. “For brands, this data provides insights that traditional retail can’t always provide. Platforms like Keychain build on that, helping manufacturers respond faster, plan production more strategically, and make sure the right products are on shelves when consumers are looking for them.”

Mintel’s Hansen says that digital technologies certainly play a role in bridging the omnichannel experience.

“Mintel’s data shows that 73% of consumers use their mobile devices while shopping for groceries in-store, opening opportunities for grocers to connect with shoppers digitally, even if they are in-store physically,” she explains. “Consumers are using their mobile devices for simple tasks such as to look up information and reference lists as well as more involved processes such as searching for/accessing coupons, comparing prices at other stores, locating desired products and even paying for items through the retailer’s app. 

“All these options add value to the shopping experience and help the consumer move from decision-making to checkout more quickly,” Hansen continues. 

As far as the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), Hansen says the technology is having a “tremendous” impact on the grocery/supermarket channel. 

“This tech is personalizing the shopping experience by offering recommendations based on a consumer’s purchase/search history as well as their individual needs and preferences,” she says. “It also allows grocers to provide live inventory updates, enhance customer service and tailored deals/promotions based on individual shoppers. AI is helping transform the grocery shopping journey into a personalized, curated experience consumers want to come back to.”

Looking ahead, Hansen anticipates that all channels will continue to see gains in the coming years. 

“Mintel anticipates that supermarkets will grow slower than others (3.1% vs. 4.2% on an annual average between 2025-30),” she says. “Should trade wars and pricing issues persist, other MULO channels look better equipped to handle the choppy waters than supermarkets at the moment due to their perceived higher value offerings (i.e., convenience, better prices).”

Keychain’s Madoff expects supermarkets to see steady growth going forward.

“The ones that combine digital experiences with smart assortments and focus on health and wellness will be the ones that stay on top,” he says. “Beverage categories that can adapt to shifting consumer preferences are likely to remain strong as well.

“Efficiency will be key,” Madoff continues. “With better data, brands can launch more intentionally, retailers can stock more precisely, and shoppers get a more streamlined, relevant experience that reflects what they actually want.”