New data from SipSource, the only wine and spirits data source with real wholesaler depletion data, shows that both the spirits and wine categories had a difficult first quarter of 2025. Volume and revenue declines accelerated across the board, SipSource notes.

Despite this turbulence, SipSource’s forecasting accuracy remained remarkably strong, with the most recent release demonstrating above 99% accuracy, it shares, allowing the industry to better plan and manage the business during challenging times.

March-ending SipSource data and analysts highlighted that spirits volume dropped 6.3% and revenue fell 5.1% in Q1 2025. Rolling 12-month figures as of the end of Q1 stand at down 3.8% for volume and down 3.9% for revenue, it adds.

The SipSource Core Spirits Forecast, which was released in January, predicted that Q1 rolling 12-month volume would decline at 3.84%. This demonstrates SipSource’s 99%-plus accuracy compared to the actual decline of 3.8%, shares Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America, operators of SipSource,

SipSource is built on the most comprehensive and timely distributor depletion data available, which is in turn analyzed using advanced machine learning-powered techniques by its partners at global consultancy Kearney, WSWA notes. The advancement comes at a “critical time” when businesses urgently need trusted insight to guide strategy and investment, it adds.

The data shows that the wine category struggled as well, with volume down 9.9% and revenue slipping 10.5% in Q1. SipSource analysts previously observed encouraging trends for lower-priced tables wines, but such trends have reversed. Meanwhile, premium wines greater than $50 are seeing growth in volume but continued softness in revenue as suppliers move through inventory backlogs.

This SipSource data also highlights a major shift in premiumization trends. Following years where revenue growth outpaced volume, SipSource notes that recent months have seen volume trends outstrip revenue in the wine category, while spirits revenue has rebounded ahead of volume trends — a reversal that SipSource says will be critical to monitor moving forward.

The SipSource Spirits Forecast projects Core Spirits rolling 12-month volume to stabilize in negative territory, ending Q2 at down 3.83%. With the platform’s documented track record, SipSource’s projection offers the best available benchmark for beverage alcohol business navigating a dynamic landscape, it says.

“There’s no sugarcoating the challenges ahead, but with SipSource, businesses can prepare smarter,” SipSource analysts said in a statement. “As we move deeper into 2025, having real-time, trusted insights isn’t just an advantage — it’s a necessity.”